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January 28, 2025

Human Trafficking Prevalence Estimation Feasibility Study

Authors

Shelby Hickman, Ph.D., Charlotte Lopez-Jauffret, Ph,D., Stephanie Fahy, Ph.D., Vanessa Masick, Abt Global

Current estimates of human trafficking vary widely since, by its nature, human trafficking can be challenging to see and measure. Without consistent measures, data collection, and analysis, we do not have a clear understanding of the scope of the problem, the resources needed to address trafficking, and whether efforts are working.

To support the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Abt Global conducted a study to recommend methods for estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the U.S. Through an environmental scan and an advisory panel, Abt synthesized the information collected to recommend three methods for a pilot study that can test the feasibility of national human trafficking estimates.

These proposed methods—capture-recapture, Vincent link-tracing sampling, and random sampling that is proportional to size sampling—are designed for estimating the size of populations that are critical to understand but hard to reach.

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Criminal & Juvenile Justice in North America

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Prison Population Fell During COVID-19 Pandemic

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The Public Health Impact of Marijuana Legalization

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Bureau of Justice Statistics Releases Correctional Data Collected by Abt Global

Rockville, Md.  –  The Bureau of Justice Statistics–the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Justice–recently released three sets of administrative data collected by Abt Global that facilitate longitudinal assessments of prison stays. They also provide a scientific foundation for policies on a variety of topics, from prosecutions to sentencing. The collection begins with individuals’ first contact with the correctional system through post-incarceration community supervision. The innovative processing of these data under the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) includes a unique, Abt-generated ID for each individual.  The Abt team has written 20 papers based on the data on issues ranging from analyses of recidivism to the aging of the prison population to neighborhood imprisonment rates. The program also enables other researchers to produce studies, and more than 400 publications have cited NCRP data.Abt has served as the data collection agent for the program since October 2010. The recently released data cover 1991-2019.Contact: Stan Crockstan_crock@abtassoc.com(301) 347-5402

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Most of the research attention on COVID-19’s impact on the justice system has focused on jails and prisons. But far more people are under community supervision: parole and probation. And little research has been done about the pandemic’s direct and indirect effects on that phase of the justice continuum—and how the system could be better prepared. In this white paper, Abt justice experts Holly Swan and Walter Campbell propose a number of research questions to address. 

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Rockville, Md.  –  With momentum moving away from mass incarceration, community supervision will become an increasingly important part of the justice system. But there’s little evidence about what the best practices are for conducting parole and probation field work. We hope to contribute to this evidence gap through a $1.5 million grant awarded to Abt Global by the National Institute of Justice to conduct an experimental test of rehabilitative field work practices in probation and parole agencies.This work builds on Abt’s recently completed qualitative and quasi-experimental evaluation of probation and parole field work and will fill a crucial evidence gap in our understanding of community supervision. The previous work produced inconclusive results about the effectiveness of field work, but identified important variations in how different agencies conduct field work. The new work will involve a rigorous randomized controlled trial of rehabilitative approaches to field work that will more directly examine this issue. “With this study, Abt will be able to start answering some of these questions about what works in community supervision,” says Holly Swan, who will serve as principal investigator. “The findings will provide agencies with evidence for what works in the field for both promoting a person’s success on supervision and maintaining public safety in the community.”The American Probation and Parole Association (APPA) will assist Abt in disseminating the findings of the study to the field.Contact: Stan Crockstan_crock@abtassoc.com(301) 347-5402

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Empirical research says little about the causes of the growth of older inmates in the federal prison population. This article addresses this gap by applying an established methodology to analyze the contributions of key factors causing this growth. We find that since 2004, age at admission has been an important cause of these changes, with longer time served and rate of admission of younger offenders also playing roles. These influences appear to be quite different from those shaping state prison populations.

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Abt Wins $3M Contract from the Bureau of Justice Statistics to Conduct the Agency-Wide Statistical Support Program

Rockville, Md.  –  The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) awarded Abt Global a contract valued at up to $3 million to conduct the agency-wide Statistical Support Program. Through this project, Abt will support BJS in three main objectives: (1) develop and test new BJS data collections that address gaps in BJS statistical coverage; (2) develop methods to modernize and restore discontinued BJS data collections; and (3) assist BJS staff in completing special analyses that address emerging issues.The Statistical Support Program (SSP) adds to Abt’s substantial BJS portfolio, which includes the National Corrections Reporting Program, the Federal Justice Statistics Program, the Survey of Prison Inmates Statistical Support Center and the Survey of Inmates in Local Jails.“BJS generally focuses on existing annual collections of data,” says Tom Rich, the project director.“The SSP contract will enable us to help BJS be flexible enough to address emerging criminal justice issues.”Contact: Stan Crockstan_crock@abtassoc.com(301) 347-5402

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News