The Decentralisation and Citizen Participation Partnership’s (DCPP) emerging Theory of Change (ToC) takes into account the politically contested and dynamic decentralisation reform initiatives in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The DCPP ToC started with hypotheses that programs can work better together to support positive change, reflecting the introduction of a facility aid model. The ToC has evolved to integrate DCPP’s constituent programs to contribute to three systemic outcomes that PNG and Australia agreed on:

• Local solutions for local challenges: improved frontline services and economic opportunity in the provinces and districts.
• Community development relying on PNG citizen engagement and participation.
• Development and understanding of PNG's policies for decentralised service delivery.

DCPP assumes achievement of these outcomes depends on change in national policy, at delivery point of service and in PNG state relations with citizens. For sustainability and impact, these changes should be mutually supportive and coherent, led locally and include underrepresented groups. Changes in one area should inform and enable change in other areas.